(First in a three-part series)
BETHLEHEM, Pa. – Dominic Barone considers himself a blessed man.
He’s getting married this spring, he enjoys his job, and for the last three years, he’s been living back in the Lehigh Valley. The Slatington-area native spent a few years in Philadelphia before moving to Upper Macungie Township in 2020.
“I couldn't imagine raising a family anywhere else. Of course, that's a homer opinion,” he said.
Life is good for Barone in Lehigh County. He loves the access to parks and trails, the shows and festivals in the cities and the relationships he’s built in the community. But he couldn’t definitively say one way or the other if the region is getting better or worse.
Everything has become far costlier, he said. His parents were able to build a home in Washington Township, Lehigh County, for $85,000 in 1992. Today, he and his fianceé need to pool their resources to afford their apartment.
“It's better for those who can enjoy all the amenities the Lehigh Valley has to offer. If you don't have a good-paying job, you're probably moving to a less central location,” Barone said.
He’s not alone in his sentiments.
According to a survey by the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion, 85% of Lehigh Valley residents rate the quality of life here positively – either a good or excellent place to live.
But the same survey showed people are unsure of its direction.
Forty percent believe the region is heading in the wrong direction. They cited crime, overdevelopment and the “number and type of people moving into the area” as leading causes for their responses.
By comparison, 30% of respondents felt like the quality of life in the Lehigh Valley is on the rise. They point to the growing number of businesses, better job opportunities and the increasing number of attractions and activities for their outlook.
The remaining 30% of respondents felt the area’s quality of life has remained the same.
View the full experience: Life in the Lehigh Valley
“I think the big picture is there’s general satisfaction that this is a good place to live but there are significant concerns about where we’re heading,” said Chris Borick, a political science professor at Muhlenberg College who directs the institute.
The survey was paid for by LehighValleyNews.com, the Lehigh Valley Economic Development Corporation and the Lehigh Valley Partnership. It polled 631 adult residents of Lehigh and Northampton counties by phone between Sept. 26 and Oct. 28, 2022. Participants were asked about the quality of life in the region, including the economy, schools, public safety and transportation. The survey has a 5% margin of error.
Past Muhlenberg surveys show Lehigh Valley residents haven’t been this pessimistic about the future since 2012. The Great Recession was technically over by then, but locals were still feeling its ill effects. Data from the U.S. Department of Labor shows about 40,000 people in the region were out of work then, a figure that wouldn’t be matched until the peak of the pandemic.
The fall survey released this week was taken at the peak of a bitter midterm election during an ongoing COVID-19 pandemic while inflation was fueling economic uncertainty. Borick said it’s likely that national and global events influenced the rise in negative sentiment.
“But I’d also add that things people have told us in their own words, that there are (local) factors here that are contributing to that pessimism,” Borick said.
Housing a major concern
One of the biggest red flags raised by residents isn’t unique to the Lehigh Valley — housing. Home prices and rents across the country skyrocketed during the pandemic as people abandoned crowded cities for suburbs and rural communities. With so many people priced out of houses, there was more competition for apartments, leading to increased prices for rental units.
It’s the same in the Lehigh Valley, where 79% of Lehigh and Northampton county residents said they were very concerned or somewhat concerned about the affordability of housing. Data from the Lehigh Valley Planning Commission shows just 12% of listed homes were affordable for the average Lehigh Valley homeowner. The average rent is now $1,120 a month, an increase of 40% since 2010, according to the LVPC.
Howard Schaeffer, president of the Greater Lehigh Valley Realtors, has worked in local real estate for 20 years. He views the increase in house prices as a correction; the Lehigh Valley offers a high quality of life and prices were higher in many surrounding markets. But that’s just half the story, he said.
“The rental market is insane, and I don't see any relief,” Schaeffer said.
Even after years of developers building luxury apartments in Allentown and elsewhere, there isn’t enough rental stock to keep up with demand, he said. Apartment complexes he previously pointed clients to are full, and it can take weeks or even months for them to find somewhere to live, he said.
“I hope it's changing people's views of home ownership. You could probably buy yourself a nice little Cape Cod somewhere because God knows where your rents are going,” he said.
Perspectives on crime
Despite the unique economic challenges facing the Valley, housing was not the most cited concern. Some 34% of people who said life here is getting worse attributed the decline to crime and violence – double the amount who blamed the cost of living.
But the results suggested concerns about crime were more nuanced. When asked about the safety of their neighborhood, 90% of Lehigh Valley residents said they were very satisfied or somewhat satisfied. And during the survey, the Lehigh Valley was being bombarded with political attack ads that focused on violent crime. Borick said that could influence how people answered the questions.
At the same time, some Lehigh Valley communities are struggling with crime. Days before the survey began, police arrested a 14-year-old who brought a gun to Allen High School. A similar incident happened this month at Dieruff High School. A brawl at an Allentown nightclub that went viral on social media led residents to demand change at a packed city council meeting.
Local economy humming
By comparison, people are bullish about the local economy. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Lehigh Valley’s October 2022 unemployment level – when the survey was completed – was 3.2%. That’s its lowest point in 23 years.
Of the people who said life in the Lehigh Valley is improving, 23% credited the growing number of businesses; another 22% said it was because of better employment opportunities. “Improving downtowns” was the fourth-highest answer, with 7% of the share.
And young people are moving to the Lehigh Valley more than in any other part of Pennsylvania. The region's population between ages 18 and 34 grew 10.7 percent in the decade prior to the 2020 Census — a rate faster than any other region.
Twenty years after Bethlehem Steel dissolved, iconic brands with deep roots in the area such as Crayola, Mack Trucks and Martin Guitar are still going strong. Other large employers, including Air Products, Orasure Technologies and B. Braun, contributed to a local GDP that hit a record $47 billion in 2021, according to the Lehigh Valley Economic Development Corp. That surpassed the GDPs of Alaska, Vermont and Wyoming.
Don Cunningham, executive director of LVEDC, said the region’s economy has never been stronger. The Valley’s manufacturing base allowed it to get through the pandemic relatively well. In the past, the region relied on a few massive companies, but today the economy is balanced with robust health, business services and logistics sectors, he said. Anyone pining for the old days may be blinded by nostalgia, he said.
“I would not trade the Lehigh Valley or the Bethlehem of today for the Bethlehem of 1982 when I was coming out of high school,” said Cunningham, the city’s former mayor. “People tend to forget we had high unemployment. We had a really bad environment. The air stunk from Bethlehem Steel. The river was dirtier.”
Race relations
The Lehigh Valley today is significantly more diverse than it was even 20 years ago. Allentown has become a minority-majority city, and the 2020 Census found non-whites made up a record 30% of the region’s population.
But residents say the Valley’s growing diversity doesn’t seem to be creating new tensions. Some 72% of survey respondents said the region has good or excellent race relations. That outpaced all other quality-of-life measures the survey inquired about, including the quality of the public school systems (66%) and local government (60%).
Those trends held, even when answers were broken down by race. According to the survey, 70% of whites said race relations were good or excellent compared to 75% of people of color. About 67% of the participants identified as white, roughly matching the Lehigh Valley’s racial breakdown.
Aging perspective
The survey also found there were no universal perspectives. A person’s outlook on life in the Lehigh Valley largely depended on their age and the amount of time they’d lived in the Lehigh Valley.
Residents aged 65 and older were most likely to say the region offers an excellent quality of life, but they were also the cohort most likely to say the region is headed in the wrong direction. Similarly, people who have lived in the Lehigh Valley for more than 10 years were more pessimistic about its direction than newer residents.
Borick attributed those trends to a greater awareness of the Lehigh Valley’s history. Long-term residents may be yearning for a time when the cost of living wasn’t so high or when the highways weren’t brimming with tractor-trailers.
“It’s not the rural, bucolic place that perhaps it once was,” Borick said. “People who had an image of why they’re here and why they came here, those differences I think are weighing on their perceptions.”
Younger generations, though, apparently are seeing the new opportunities.
Ian Riccobonni, 35, grew up in Salisbury Township and moved back in 2017. The Lehigh Valley of his childhood, he said, was a place where things used to be. Bethlehem Steel, Hess’s and Champion Spark Plugs had left or were dying, and there wasn’t a ton to do.
Now, people are investing in local downtowns and jobs are available, he said. Major attractions like the IronPigs and the Crayola Experience have become part of the region’s fabric.
“We saw it kind of fall apart, and we're seeing it being put back together,” he said.
Read Part 2: SPECIAL REPORT: As the Lehigh Valley grows, affordable housing becomes hard to find
Read Part 3: SPECIAL REPORT: Quality of life survey examines race relations in the Lehigh Valley
Return to the full Life in the Lehigh Valley presentation here.
