ALLENTOWN, Pa. — Muhlenberg College’s final poll of the 2024 presidential campaign in Pennsylvania shows the race statistically tied as it comes down to the wire in the Keystone State.
The Muhlenberg College/Morning Call poll, conducted from Oct. 27 to Oct. 30, found that 49% of the 450 likely Pennsylvania voters surveyed said they would vote for Vice President Kamala Harris, compared to 47% who supported former President Donald Trump.
Harris’ 2-point lead is well within the poll’s 6-point margin of error.
That amounts to a slight gain for Harris relative to last month’s Muhlenberg College/Morning Call poll of the race, which found support for both candidates evenly split at 48%.
Inside the numbers
A gender gap that appeared in the last poll shrank relative to September. However, Harris still holds a meaningful 10-point lead among women, while Trump commands a 9-point advantage with men.
A similar gulf between people with and without a college degree also narrowed. Where Harris enjoyed a 32-point advantage in September among those with a college degree, her lead with the group shrank to 25 points in the most recent poll.
Meanwhile, Trump’s 19-point September lead among likely voters without a college degree waned to 11 points.
U.S. Senate
Even as the poll returned a slightly better overall margin for Harris, her fellow Democrat U.S. Sen. Bob Casey is facing a closer contest than polling showed in September.
As more voters make up their minds and the portion of undecided respondents dwindles, both Casey and his Republican challenger, Dave McCormick, notched slightly more support in October than in the previous poll.
However, McCormick gained more, shrinking what was a 6-point lead for Casey in September to a 3-point lead, within the survey’s margin of error.
Voter angst
The generic congressional contest was and still is neck-and-neck, with 47% of respondents telling pollsters they will vote for a Republican for the U.S. House, compared to 46% backing a Democrat.
The new poll also turned up substantial anxiety about the election among likely voters. Just under half of respondents – 48% – said they anticipate acts of political violence on Election Day.
Nearly a third said that politics and current events are a “major source of stress,” while another 43% said they are a “minor source of stress."
