BETHLEHEM, Pa. — Lehigh Valley Democrats have once again lapped their Republican neighbors in requesting mail-in ballots, creating what party officials hope will help be an advantage for their candidates in contested school board races next week.
Lehigh County data shows 15,911 Democrats have requested to vote by mail-in ballot this primary — more than triple the 5,017 mail-in ballots requested by county Republicans, according to data released by the county.
The divide was even steeper in Northampton County, where officials said 18,177 Democratic voters requested mail-in ballots compared to the 5,281 mail-in ballot requests from Republicans.
- Three times more Democrats than Republicans requested mail-in ballots for the May 16 primary
- Democratic Party leaders hope the advantage will pay off in contested school board races with cross-filed candidates
- Meanwhile, Republican ranks outgrew Democrats' over the past four years in the Lehigh Valley
Political scientists have credited Democrats' embrace of mail-in ballots with helping them win the White House in 2020 and stave off steep losses in 2022.
Primary just around the corner
While many Republicans have stayed away from the system after former President Donald Trump made unfounded attacks on their security, Democratic organizers have said it's helped improve their turnout in recent elections.
Lori McFarland, chair of the Lehigh County Democratic Committee, said Wednesday she hopes that trend will help her party heading into the May 16 primary. Normally, primaries are intra-party affairs where voters select which of their party's members should represent them in the November election.
"I think getting people comfortable is going to be something that's not done overnight. We need to get those people to realize if they do turn out, that ballot will be counted — and it will make a significant difference in the election."Glenn Geissinger, Northampton Co. Republican Committee
However, off-year primaries like Tuesday's allow candidates to cross-file for some races, including school board races. Heated partisan races have emerged in East Penn, Parkland and Southern Lehigh school districts, and McFarland was crossing her fingers that the difference in mail-in ballots will give her slates a leg up.
She believed that voters who participate by mail tend to be more engaged since they don't automatically get a mail-in ballot. Since they're already going out of their way to vote that way, McFarland said, she believes they'll be more likely to research the races, learn about the issues and figure out which cross-filed candidates are in line with the Democratic Party.
"I think it is a huge advantage. It gives people an opportunity to sit down and be thoughtful. They can do it at their own convenience," she said.
Republicans closing gap
Glenn Geissinger, chair of the Northampton County Republican Committee, wasn't surprised by the mail-in ballot divide.
After Republicans' poor showing during the 2022 midterm elections, he called mail-in ballots a "black hole" for his party. He named closing the gap in mail-in ballots as an important priority, but on Wednesday he acknowledged it's been difficult to move voters after so many prominent party leaders publicly attacked mail-in ballots, he said.
"I think getting people comfortable is going to be something that's not done overnight," he said. "We need to get those people to realize if they do turn out, that ballot will be counted, and it will make a significant difference in the election."
The latest data from the county election offices wasn't all bad news for Republicans, however. Over the past four years, they've closed the gap in registered voters.
In Northampton County, the number of registered Republicans grew by 10%, from 72,693 to 79,928. By comparison, Northampton County Democrats saw their numbers climb just 1.5%, from 94,363 to 95,793.
In Lehigh County, Republicans swelled their ranks by 7%, from 77,950 to 83,372. Democratic registration, meanwhile, grew from 109,991 to 112,000, good for a 1.8% increase.
The Trump effect
Geissinger viewed the growth as a continuation of Trump's effect on the party. His emergence in the 2016 presidential campaign brought many former blue-collar Democrats into the Republican Party. While some voters made the change immediately, others made the change more gradually as they wrestled with their place on the political spectrum.
Matt Munsey, the Northampton County Democratic Committee chair, agreed.
Munsey said he was satisfied with the Democratic Party's growth locally, noting that while the party affiliation numbers have shifted, the overall election results haven't. The county, by and large, remains a political battleground, and Democrats' large numerical advantage on paper isn't reflected in tight countywide elections.
"Their registration is just late catching up to the way people have been voting. We know Trump wouldn't have won Northampton County [in 2016] if some Democrats hadn't supported him. Some of them were just late to make it official," he said.
Lehigh Valley Voter Registration Data
Lehigh County
- Registered Democrats — 112,000
- Democratic mail-in ballot requests — 15,911
- Registered Republicans — 83,372
- Republican mail-in ballot requests — 5,017
Northampton County
- Registered Democrats — 95,793
- Democratic mail-in ballot requests — 18,177
- Registered Republicans — 79,928
- Republican mail-in ballot requests — 5,281
