BETHLEHEM, Pa. — Every Tuesday, Chris Borick, director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion, sits down with LehighValleyNews.com politics reporter Tom Shortell for Lehigh Valley Political Pulse on WLVR.
They discuss the latest trends emerging from science-based polls to break down local, state and national campaigns and issues.
This week, they dug into the findings from the institute's latest statewide poll, which asked likely voters about their opinions on the presidential and U.S. senate races. It found that Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are in a virtual tie for Pennsylvania, one of the most critical swing states in the 2024 presidential election.
Other well-regarded polls released in the last two weeks have reached similar results. While there have been some outliers, most have Harris and Trump within a point or two of each other — well within the polls' margins of error.
"I think it is really that close in this race," Borick said. "You can see that by the type of activity in the state — the engagement, the effort that both parties putting forth. They know it's close."
The poll also examined Pennsylvania's U.S. senate race between Democratic incumbent Bob Casey and Republican challenger Dave McCormick. Like other polls, it found Casey is likely ahead in the race. But the race is competitive, making it a departure from Casey's past campaigns.
"On average, it's in that mid-single digits, which would mark the closest race by far for Sen. Casey in all of his races," Borick said. "On average, he's won by double digits — mid-double digits in those races.
"If we're looking at a five-point lead or so, five- to seven-point lead, that's significantly less, which is testament to the type of race and competitive nature of this."
Political Pulse airs throughout the day Tuesdays on 91.3 WLVR. You can listen to an extended version of the conversation here, by clicking the listen button above.
