ALLENTOWN, Pa. — With Election Day less than six weeks away, Pennsylvania finds itself in a dead heat between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, according to a poll released Wednesday.
The statewide survey of likely voters by the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion and The Morning Call newspaper found the Keystone State is split 48% to 48% in the presidential race.
The poll, which has a 6% margin of error and a 95% level of confidence, touched base with 450 registered voters who have cast a ballot in at least one of the past four elections.
The poll results are the latest to find Pennsylvania locked in a toss-up. Last week, MassINC Polling Group found Harris had a 50% to 46% lead, within the poll's 4% margin of error.
Similarly, an Emerson College poll found Harris led Trump 50% to 49%, which also was within that poll's margin of error. And a Marist College poll found the candidates tied at 49% each.
The poll aggregator site fivethirtyeight.com considers all four pollsters among the best in the country.
It ranked Marist the fifth best in the nation, Emerson 10th best, Muhlenberg 11th and MassINC 18th. Muhlenberg is the site's highest ranked pollster based in Pennsylvania.
Major demographic divides
The Muhlenberg poll identified several significant demographic divides among the candidates' supporters.
Men were more likely to back Trump than to back Harris — 59% to 36% — while women were more likely to rally around Harris than Trump — 59% to 38%.
People with four-year college degrees threw their support to Harris by a 65% to 33% margin, while those without a bachelor's degree supported Trump, 58% to 37%.
Meanwhile, 66% of racial minorities said they would vote for Harris, compared with the 27% who said they would vote for Trump. White voters, on the other hand, backed Trump over Harris, 54% to 42%.
In response to an open-ended question, 35% of those polled named the economy and inflation as the biggest issue.Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion/The Morning Call survey
The divide extended to age, as well. Harris held an advantage with voters under 30 (61% to 35%) and those over 65 (53% to 42%).
Trump, on the other hand, scored better with voters ages 30 to 49 (53% to 44%) and 50 to 65 (59% to 37%).
Unsurprisingly, 93% of registered Democrats said they would vote for Harris, and 95% of registered Republicans said they would vote for Trump.
Independent voters broke to Harris by a 45% to 40% margin, the poll found.
Neither of the presidential candidates had a net favorable rating among those polls.
Harris scored slightly better, with 50% of those polled having an unfavorable opinion of her, compared with the 47% who had a favorable view of her.
By comparison, 52% of those surveyed had an unfavorable opinion of Trump, while 45% had a favorable opinion of the former president.
Pennsylvanians didn't have a consensus on the single biggest issue in the race, though there was a favorite. In response to an open-ended question, 35% of those polled named the economy and inflation as the biggest issue.
The only other topics to reach double digits were abortion rights and immigration, at 13% and 11%, respectively.
Casey leads close Senate race
The Muhlenberg poll also asked voters about their preferences in the U.S. Senate race between Democratic incumbent Bob Casey and Republican challenger Dave McCormick.
Casey held a 48% to 43% lead — within the poll's 6-point margin of error.
The only politician who voters had a net positive opinion of was Gov. Josh Shapiro.Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion/The Morning Call survey
As in the presidential race, voters didn't have a net positive opinion of the candidates.
The survey found 38% of voters had an unfavorable opinion of Casey, compared with 33% who viewed him favorably.
Meanwhile, 28% of surveyed voters had a positive view of McCormick, while 38% viewed him unfavorably.
The only politician whom voters had a net positive opinion of was Gov. Josh Shapiro. Fifty-nine percent of responders said they had a positive opinion of the first-term Democrat while 27% viewed him negatively.
President Joe Biden had the worst favorability score under the survey. The poll found 58% of voters didn't approve of his job as president compared to the 27% who had a favorable opinion.
