BETHLEHEM, Pa. — A new poll of the Lehigh Valley's congressional district found U.S. Rep. Susan Wild holds a 6-point lead over Republican challenger Ryan Mackenzie, but the results fall within the survey's margin of error.
Wild, a three-term Democrat, is leading Mackenzie, a 12-year state representative, 51% to 45%, according to the new survey by the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion/Morning Call.
The poll questioned 459 likely voters from the district, which includes Carbon, Lehigh and Northampton counties plus a sliver of Monroe County.
It polled 459 likely voters from the district, which includes Carbon, Lehigh and Northampton counties plus a sliver of Monroe County.
The survey has a 6-point margin of error and a 95% level of confidence.
The poll found voters had a positive opinion of both candidates, a relative rarity in modern politics. A statewide survey by the institute last month found voters had unfavorable opinions about President Joe Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris, former President Donald Trump, U.S. Sen. Bob Casey and Republican senate candidate Dave McCormick.
Forty-seven percent of voters have a favorable opinion of Wild, compares with 36% who had an unfavorable opinion.
Familiarity and the economy
Mackenzie was more of an unknown to voters — 20% of respondents said they hadn't heard of him, compared with 3% who hadn't heard of Wild.
But 30% of those surveyed viewed him favorably, compared with the 25% who viewed him unfavorably.
Wild held double-digit leads among women (56% to 42%), voters ages 35 to 50 (54% to 39%), people of color (72% to 24%), those with a four-year degree (62% to 37%) and people who didn't identify as Catholic or Protestant (61% to 34%).
The only demographics where Mackenzie led by more than the margin of error was voters without four-year degrees (51% to 43%) and Catholics (54% to 43%).
The economy was far and away the biggest issue among local voters, the poll found. More people identified it as the top priority (29%) than the next three most common responses combined.
Those were immigration (12%), abortion and reproductive rights (7%) and democratic norms (7%).
Narrowly divided district
The district has been bombarded with political ads, mailers and VIPs for months. PA-7 is one of about two-dozen toss-up House seats in the country, and both parties have vowed to invest heavily in the district in a bid to win it.
The U.S. House has been narrowly divided in recent years, and the winner of the district could determine which party sets the legislative agenda in the chamber next year.
House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-Louisiana, and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-New York, are each scheduled to appear in the Lehigh Valley in a bid to boost their party's candidate ahead of the Nov. 5 election.
The same poll of 7th Congressional District likely voters found Harris narrowly leading former President Donald Trump in the presidential race 50% to 47% — also within the margin of error.
A statewide poll by Muhlenberg last month found the two presidential candidates locked in a 48% to 48% tie.
That could be welcome news to Harris. The Lehigh Valley and Northampton County in particular have earned a reputation as a bellwether region. Northampton County has backed the winning candidate in 22 of the past 25 presidential elections.
The poll also found U.S. Sen. Bob Casey leading Republican challenger Dave McCormick by a 51%-to-45% margin in the race for Pennsylvania's U.S. Senate seat — still within the margin of error.
It roughly matches the statewide poll, which found Casey leading McCormick 48% to 43%.
