An arctic outbreak is coming, forecasters say, but beware of 'fantasyland' solutions

BETHLEHEM, Pa. — Forecasters are warning of a “significant pattern change” expected across much of the country next week, with an arctic outbreak expected to spread from the Northern Plains to the South and East.

The National Weather Service said Monday the scenario will lead to “exceptionally high probabilities of below-normal temperatures expected across much of the East.”

But the forecast office in Mount Holly, New Jersey, has warned of “fantasyland weather model solutions of unrealistic or very extreme snow/temperatures posted on social media.”

In the rise of misinformation, meteorologists are reminding residents to “follow a trusted source for reliable and legitimate weather forecasts” in the days ahead.

What to know

Meteorologists and atmospheric scientists say there likely will be multiple “surges” of Arctic air — or polar air — dropping into the Lower 48 states and spreading east, with each one colder than the last.

The first blast of cold air comes late Wednesday, with a reinforcing shot expected Friday into Saturday before another round next week.

Forecasters say the third shot likely will bring the coldest air of the season to date, with below-freezing temperatures possible as far south as the Gulf Coast and much of the Florida Peninsula, and dangerous wind chills possible.

The Washington Post’s Capital Weather Gang predicted more than 30 states could experience subzero temperatures during the second week of January.

“If temperatures reach these levels, high demands for heat and electricity could strain the U.S. electrical grid,” the Post warned.

The government’s Climate Prediction Center said the forecast confidence level for the long-term period is “above average, due to a highly amplified pattern and excellent agreement among the temperature tools.”

A word of caution

While this is expected to be a long-lasting and potentially severe cold event, experts don’t know just how intense the cold will be as the arctic air pushes south.

“The available cold pool is not remotely as intense as it could be for early January,” meteorologist Ryan Maue said on X, even as others continued to share warnings of record-breaking, historical cold.

Experts say how cold it gets will depend on a number of factors, especially whether there’s snow on the ground as this arctic outbreak strengthens.

That’s because snow traps cold air near the surface, prolonging the cold.

Will it snow?

EPAWA meteorologist Bobby Martrich described the temperatures heading into the weekend as a “step-down process,” with each day being colder than the last.

But as far as snow?

Martrich said a system that could target the area around Jan. 6-7 is one that has to be watched, as it falls inside the seven-day forecast window.

“It’s something you have to start taking seriously,” Martrich said in his latest video update. He said some models depict a “moderate” snowfall event.

“It could be something that could deliver a 3 to 6 or 4 to 8-inch snowfall, so it’s not like it’s a small system,” he said.

“But it’s not a blizzard like people are hyping the living crap out of on social media, from the usual ‘social media experts’ that love sharing things like that.”

Like Martrich, the weather service also cautioned that guidance “remains all over the place” regarding the track of the system, “which will have large implications in timing and impacts of any snow,” its latest forecast discussion said.

NWS 7-day outlook:

Tuesday
Increasing clouds, with a high near 51. Light and variable wind becoming southeast 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.

New Year's Eve
Rain and thunderstorms before 2 a.m., then a slight chance of rain between 2 a.m. and 4 a.m. Patchy fog after midnight. Low around 41. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

New Year's Day
A slight chance of showers after 10 a.m. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 46. Breezy, with a west wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 30. Breezy, with a west wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Thursday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 36. Breezy, with a west wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph.

Thursday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 25.

Friday
Partly sunny, with a high near 34.

Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 22.

Saturday
Partly sunny, with a high near 30. Breezy.

Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21.

Sunday
Partly sunny, with a high near 31.

Sunday Night
A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Monday
A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 31. Chance of precipitation is 40%.