BETHLEHEM, Pa. — Bikers along the Delaware Canal on Sunday found a bed of rocks where water should be running through.
A few miles south of Easton, where stream gauges put the water level at just one foot, people wandered end-to-end on what looked more like a man-made island than any body of water.
It’s been so dry for so long vegetation typically awash in the stream flow appeared dead and brittle as the area remains mired in severe drought.
Moisture deficits in the region are so significant — 6 to 9 inches below normal across the mid-Atlantic and Northeast — that unusually high fire danger and numerous brush fires have been observed.
The Lehigh Valley was in an elevated risk category for wildfires over the weekend, and forecast fire danger for Monday remained moderate.
But experts say a big pattern shift is finally on the way.
‘Much-needed rain is likely’
“Wednesday is going to be a mostly cloudy [day], then becoming overcast,” EPAWA meteorologist Bobby Martrich said in his latest video update.
“But I don’t think you’re going to get too much precipitation until you get into the evening hours,” he said.
Forecasters are watching a storm system expected to rapidly intensify Wednesday night into Thursday.
“Showers in the evening are going to evolve into steady periods of rain overnight, and this is going to be much-needed,” Martrich said.
Both Martrich and the National Weather Service say we’re looking at gusty downpours and a half-inch to an inch of rain or more in some areas, which will usher in a pattern change Thursday through the weekend — and beyond.
The end of the week will feature gusty winds and unsettled conditions, not only bringing the potential for additional rain, but higher elevations could also see some snow.
“It could be rain changing to snow or rain-snow showers or something,” Martrich said.
“That’s still on the table, especially up for higher elevations and it’s really focusing on Thursday morning before this thing pulls away.”
Martrich said some models are depicting snow showers “pretty far south,” with rain and snow mixed all the way down into the I-78 corridor.
Accumulating snow is possible in the higher elevations of the Pocono Plateau, he said, as part of a “dynamically cooled” process of precipitation coming around the backside of a low pressure system.
“Even if the temperatures are 40 to 42 you could still have it snowing, physically snowing. Maybe not sticking too well in the lower elevations, of course, but you could have that in the higher [Pocono] Plateau.”
“Even if the temperatures are 40 to 42 you could still have it snowing, physically snowing. Maybe not sticking too well in the lower elevations, of course, but you could have that in the higher [Pocono] Plateau.”EPAWA meteorologist Bobby Martrich
Storm to affect holiday travel?
Martrich said we definitely have a cooler stretch coming up, but the big story will be the rain.
A look-ahead to the Thanksgiving holiday also shows another strong storm brewing, though forecasters say it’s too early to determine details, including potential timing and placement of the heaviest precipitation.
"It's definitely there as a valid storm signal, but there are vast differences in timing," Martrich said Monday morning.
"The European model has it on Black Friday, for example. The GFS [American model] has it basically Thanksgiving Day."
Matrich said the signal again shows the "potential to produce much-needed rainfall," but with poor timing.
"It's not looking like it's going to snow with that one. The pattern doesn't flip until after that storm exits heading into December."
