BETHLEHEM, Pa. — Temperatures in the Lehigh Valley have averaged 5.4 degrees above normal to begin February, but experts say our springlike pattern will flip in a big way next week.
In other words, winter is far from over — no matter what Punxsutawney Phil predicted.
“The weather pattern across North America will be undergoing a large-scale transition through the long-range period,” the National Weather Service said Wednesday.
The big picture includes a colder weather pattern by the middle of next week and beyond, and forecasters say it could mean elevated snow chances across the area in the days and weeks ahead.
But first, how warm will it get?
The region remains in a dry stretch and the weather is forecast to be tranquil and warm through the weekend.
Model guidance suggests some widely scattered showers will try to push into the area on Saturday, but record temperatures are possible.
“It will remain unseasonably mild, and probably will feature the warmest temperatures of the week in most locations,” the weather service said in its latest forecast discussion.
It said Philadelphia has a good chance at 60 degrees and Allentown may break its daily record of 57 degrees.
What forecasters are watching
Meteorologists are keeping an eye on a disturbance in the southern branch of the jet stream expected to aid in the development of a low-pressure system across the South this weekend.
By late Monday, this system is expected to pivot northeast and bring precipitation from Maryland all the way up to New England.
Models show a storm that will develop an area of low pressure off the coast by next Tuesday, but its track still remains highly uncertain.
Forecasters say rain likely will change to snow at some point, but the system will lack antecedent cold air — something critical to producing widespread significant snowfall.
“There is some chance for at least low-impact wintry weather in northwestern higher elevation sections of our region,” the weather service said.
Meanwhile, EPAWA meteorologist Bobby Martrich noted a great deal of uncertainty in the timing and strength of the system that could impact our area Tuesday.
EPAWA's 2/8 and week ahead outlook, covering:
— Bobby Martrich | EPAWA (@epawawx) February 8, 2024
■ Milder turn starting today, through the weekend
■ Pattern-changing storm next week: latest info
■ A return to winterlike temperatures next weekhttps://t.co/DTw8YHIZ2I
Martrich said we’ll see a “windshield wiper effect” as models flip back and forth from rain to snow in the coming days, and we won't know until the end of the week what the resolution might be.
On X (formerly Twitter), he’s also spent time this week cautioning the upcoming cold pattern doesn't guarantee snow for anyone, but does increase the chances of impactful winter weather.
“We'll take storms and potential thereof one at a time," he said. "Get the colder temperature anomalies in place first... then at least you have a fighting chance for snow to follow.
"I aim to keep everyone level-headed with realistic expectations."
