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Environment & Science

Forecasters: ‘No relief’ to ongoing drought and fire concerns; record temperatures possible again this week

Temp outlook
NOAA
/
Climate Prediction Center
This graphic shows the 8-14 day temperature outlook.

BETHLEHEM, Pa. — The National Weather Service said there will be “no relief” to ongoing drought and fire concerns, with record-challenging temperatures expected by midweek across the region.

A brush fire erupted on Blue Mountain Saturday afternoon near Route 248, which borders Northampton and Carbon counties.

The fire broke out as the Lehigh Valley and several Pennsylvania counties have been under fire weather watches and red flag warnings, indicating a high level of fire danger. The region has received barely a trace of rain for more than a month.

On Friday, the NWS forecast office in Mount Holly, New Jersey, said eight of its nine climate stations set new monthly records for the driest October on record, as well as all-time station records for driest calendar month.

Many of the records broken were from October of 1924 or 1963, which was previously the driest month in the area, the weather service said.

Allentown recorded just two-hundredths of an inch of rain (0.02”), marking both its driest October ever and its driest month ever on record. The previous records, respectively, were 0.15” (October 1963 for driest October ever) and 0.09” (May 1964 for driest month ever).

The weather service said the driest calendar month and new all-time station records dated to January 1912, when record keeping began.

On Thursday, the U.S. Drought Monitor placed parts of the Lehigh Valley in “moderate” and “severe” drought status.

On Friday, dozens of counties across the state officially were placed in a drought watch or warning.

Records could fall, again

On Thursday, Oct. 31, the temperature soared to 82 degrees at Lehigh Valley International Airport, breaking the old record of 81 degrees for the date, which was set in 1950.

We could break records again by midweek, forecasters said.

It all comes with high pressure in control in the region, which will begin to slide offshore Monday, helping to bring a southerly flow and warmer temperatures back into the area.

“Temperatures will be above normal Monday night before taking off to well above normal for Tuesday,” the latest NWS forecast discussion said.

A weak cold front is expected to cross the area Wednesday into Thursday, but again, not much if any rainfall is expected.

“Temperature-wise, Wednesday will be another very mild day with afternoon highs expected to get close to records once again,” the NWS said.

Many locations could make a run for the upper 70s to around 80 degrees.

Allentown’s record to beat is 78 degrees, set in 1948.

The Climate Prediction Center has called for a warm November, with outlooks suggesting temperatures well above average thorough mid-month.

Models suggest the region could finally see some notable rainfall around Nov. 10.

GFS trend
GFS
/
TropicalTidbits.com
This shows the latest GFS (American model) depicting rainfall in the region around Nov. 10.

"While conditions remain very dry across the region and thus keeping the fire danger high, we do not anticipate any significant fire spread due to the light nature of the wind.

"However, we strongly recommend the public to follow burn restrictions and to check with your state and local fire officials for more information," the weather service said.