BETHLEHEM, Pa. — January brought above-average snowfall to the Lehigh Valley, but long-range outlooks have flipped the script in a big way.
Most forecasters agree snow chances are not only minimal during the first week of February, they’re practically nonexistent.
But it sure doesn’t mean we’re closing the door on winter.
Weather Weeklies for Sunday 1/28/2024 is EPAWA's weekly editorial video blog, covering long term signals and the winter pattern for the entirety of the season.
— Bobby Martrich | EPAWA (@epawawx) January 28, 2024
View it here~> https://t.co/jLq67nScVA
“I don’t know how many times I’ve said you have to be patient, and nobody wanted to be patient,” EPAWA meteorologist Bobby Martrich said in his latest weather weekly video.
“People still want that really big storm,” he said. “Is that possible? Yes. Is it a guarantee? No.”
The upcoming pattern
Remember that spell of cold and snow in mid-January? It was partly because of a warming episode in the lower stratospheric polar vortex, experts say.
Combined with high-latitude blocking (ridging in the higher latitudes of the northern hemisphere), it let cold air be dislodged into the United States and influenced our weather in a big way.
Now, the cold air has retreated back into Canada and the Arctic regions and there are no significant storm threats — snow, rain or otherwise — over the next week to 10 days.
The Climate Prediction Center gives the Lehigh Valley area a 50-60% chance of above-average temperatures through Feb. 12.
An additional outlook for the same time frame suggests a 33-40% chance of below-normal precipitation.
A change in the pattern?
“We do expect a busy month here in February,” Martrich said, projecting slightly above-average snowfall for the month.
“I don’t want to put the cart ahead of the horse just yet, but there is the opportunity for that.”
He flagged the middle of the month — Feb. 14-17 — as a timeframe for a more favorable pattern for winter storms to develop, and more specifically, for the next big storm signal.
“This is exactly what you’d want to see if you’re a snow lover, because you have a chance for not only a winter storm, but maybe a bigger storm.”
Martrich said it wasn’t a lock for a winter storm to take place, but described the pattern as “sustainable,” with snow chances through the back half of February and at least early March.
