Not a drought-buster, but the Lehigh Valley could be in a corridor for the heaviest rainfall Monday

BETHLEHEM, Pa. — The Lehigh Valley is likely to see something Monday it hasn’t witnessed in well over a month: substantial rain.

The Storm Prediction Center has a marginal risk for severe weather for southeast Pennsylvania, including the Lehigh Valley, with gusting winds as the primary threat.

• The Lehigh Valley is under a marginal risk of severe weather on Monday
• The primary threat will be gusting winds
• Storms could bring heavy rain to the area — our first substantial rainfall since April 30

Meteorologist Bobby Martrich of EPAWA Weather Consulting said morning clouds are likely to put a lid on the severe weather potential for many areas, though some could see winds at 35 to 45 mph.

“I think this is just going to be a heavy rain threat for these thunderstorms that move through,” Martrich said. “Some thunder and lightning and some locally heavy rainfall.

“It’s just not the greatest setup for a severe weather day."

Timing the storms

The National Weather Service said a southerly flow will develop ahead of the approaching system, with winds increasing to 10 to 15 mph, with gusts up to 20 mph by the afternoon.

But high temperatures will be six to 10 degrees cooler than on Sunday, generally topping off in the upper 70s to low 80s across the region.

Storms are not expected to arrive in the Lehigh Valley until later in the afternoon, with the more intense rainfall moving north and east through the area around 4 p.m.

Even with the rain expected, Martrich said we’re not going to get rid of the drought we’re in currently.

“We’re in moderate drought across much of interior Pennsylvania, [and] at the very least it’s not going to get rid of that,” he said.

“It is going to help, though. Every little bit helps and this is just adding to that. It’s going to be the first of a few chances this week.”

Expected rainfall totals

May was completely parched, with the Lehigh Valley recording less than a quarter-inch of rain.

It was the second-driest May ever, behind only the 0.09 inches recorded in May 1964. Normal precipitation for the month is 3.28 inches.

The first 11 days of June also have been bone dry, with just a trace of rain recorded.

But Monday’s forecast shows potential for heavy rainfall to train over the same areas, Martrich said, putting the Lehigh Valley in a “hot shot corridor” with the most potential for the heaviest rain.

The weather service projects 1 to 2 inches of rain in the southern Poconos and the Lehigh Valley, and a half-inch to an inch of rain down to the I-95 corridor.