BETHLEHEM, Pa. — The American Automobile Association projects close to 80 million travelers will head 50 miles or more from home this Thanksgiving, but some might run into trouble based on early forecasts.
The National Weather Service has turned its attention to the end of next week, saying most model guidance indicates a storm system developing and affecting the East Coast — including the mid-Atlantic —around Thanksgiving Day.
“However, given that this is several days out, there is lots of uncertainty regarding the system’s strength, track and overall evolution including timing,” the latest NWS forecast discussion said.
Forecasters say the track of the storm will help determine precipitation type — whether it’s rain, snow or a mix.
“It’s worth mentioning this looks like a setup where there won’t be a strong, cold antecedent high. Therefore, [it’s] currently not looking like the best setup for a major snowstorm in the urban corridor,” the weather service said.
'Robust trends' for holiday travel
For the first time, AAA said its forecast includes the Tuesday before and the Monday after Thanksgiving Day to better capture the flow of holiday travelers.
This year’s projection of nearly 80 million travelers is an increase of 1.7 million people compared to last year and 2 million more than in 2019.
“The holiday season will reflect the robust trends that we have enjoyed throughout the year,” said Bevi Powell, senior vice president, AAA East Central, in a release.
“Our forecast indicates more Americans are looking for new adventures and memorable vacations as a way to reconnect with family and friends.”
Tuesday looks to bring a “relatively moisture-starved” system into the area, the weather service said.
But Thursday could be a different story, and the biggest question right now is whether the system will bring rain or snow.
“It has been completely different every single time,” EPAWA meteorologist Bobby Martrich said Friday of the model runs he’s been watching every six hours.
“Every six hours it runs, and every six hours is different,” he emphasized in a video update.
Martrich said the storm signal has been present across the board, from the American model (GFS) to the European, Canadian and more.
He said some have been advertising a “snow event” for the region, which means the system will continue to be closely monitored.
“We’re keeping an eye on this very closely for Thanksgiving Day and Thanksgiving night,” Martrich said, describing the storm system as “too close to call” on whether we end up with rain or snow.
The latest
On Saturday, the weather service said the storm “looks like it is going to take a path similar to a Miller– Type B system. However, how close it will track to our region, and thus the ultimate impacts in our region, remain quite uncertain.”
The range of possibilities include:
- The storm running so far southeast of the region that most areas stay dry
- The storm tracking over Delmarva and far southeast New Jersey, “which would result in widespread precipitation for our region,” but depending on timing would be almost all rain
- The storm tracking just Southeast of the coast, resulting in precipitation for most of the region with rain transitioning to a wintry mix for areas near the I-95 corridor and further west
The weather service said while most of the main deterministic models show the storm deepening and intensifying while it is tracking near our region, none of them depict it slowing or stalling, meaning it may be a relatively fast-moving coastal storm.
“Those with travel plans on Thursday and Friday should keep an eye on the forecast as we get closer,” the discussion said.
