BETHLEHEM, Pa. — When will it rain again?
That’s the million-dollar question as the National Weather Service warned Friday of the increased risk of fire spread for the Lehigh Valley and across the region.
A special weather statement warned of relative humidity values expected to fall to 20-25% across much of the area.
"This will be combined with north to northeast winds near 10 to 15 mph, with sporadic gusts of 18 to 20 mph at times, temperatures in the mid 60s to near 70 degrees and abundant sunshine,” the statement said.
"These conditions will support the spread of any fires that ignite, which could become difficult to control."
Outdoor burning is strongly discouraged in the area, with burn restrictions possible into the weekend given the very dry conditions.
Drought expands
The warning comes less than 24 hours after the U.S. Drought Monitor expanded all categories of drought across the region.
Moderate drought (D1) now covers 63% of the forecast area for the National Weather Service in Mount Holly, New Jersey. Severe drought (D2) covers 10%.
In the Lehigh Valley, moderate drought crept into more of Lehigh and Northampton counties, with much of the area remaining at D0 (abnormally dry).
“Precipitation across the country was pretty much nonexistent over the past week,” the Drought Monitor said in its latest update.
“The outliers were in Florida as Hurricane Milton came ashore and brought with it copious amounts of rain over much of the peninsula.”
'No chance of any appreciable rainfall'
"The next chance [for rainfall], only about 10-20% as of this writing, will be with a cold front late Wednesday or early Thursday of next week,” the weather service said on X.
“If we don't get any rain from that system, we'll likely be dry until Halloween, or potentially into November,” it warned.
So when is it going to rain again? The next chance, only about 10-20% as of this writing, will be with a cold front late Wednesday or early Thursday of next week. If we don't get any rain from that system, we'll likely be dry until Halloween, or potentially into November. 🧵 1/4
— NWS Mount Holly (@NWS_MountHolly) October 18, 2024
No rain until late next week will already put Philadelphia, Trenton, Wilmington, and Georgetown into the Top 5-10 longest consecutive number of dry days on record, according to the weather service.
Another week or two on top of that would start breaking station records dating to the late 1800s and early 1900s.
The consecutive number of dry days for the Allentown area is 42, from Oct. 2 to Nov. 12, 1924.
Our last measurable date of rainfall this month came Oct. 3, with 1/100th of an inch.
“The pattern ahead through the end of October supports generally mild to warm and dry conditions, with a few brief cool downs," the weather service said.
"So long story short, expect the dry weather to continue for at least the next couple weeks.”
